The European Think-tank Network on China, a collaborative policy think-tank consisting of a dozen European research institutes, published a report titled “From a China Strategy to No Strategy at all: Exploring the Diversity of European Approaches”" on July 27th. The report explores what the EU and twenty-four European countries’ China policy focus on, comparing and analyzing their political relevance and economic ties with China. Countries vary to a great extent in regard to their locations in the coordinate grid where political relevance (high to low) is at vertical y-axis and economic ties (focus on deepening to focus on de-risking) at horizontal x-axis. For example, Germany and the UK have the highest political relevance with China, while Slovakia has the lowest. Lithuania shows the greatest degree of de-risking from China. France, Portugal and Hungry have the deepest economic ties with China. Generally speaking, it seems that Europe’s strategies on China have diverged to an extent that they are no longer about strategy. In fact, it also marks the beginning that “no strategy is the best strategy” for Europe. China will definitely face the inflection point between strategic retreat and tactical advance.
The report finds that twenty European countries and the EU have increasingly pursued a more strategic approach to China. Six countries have published an official China strategy. Eleven governments also establish inter-ministerial coordination mechanisms for China-related issues. Norway became the first European country that unveils a China strategy in 2007. The Netherlands, Sweden, the EU, Finland and Switzerland followed. Germany released its first China strategy this year. According to Bernhard Bartsch, editor of the report and director external relations of the German think tank Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), China conducts national diplomacy in tandem with subnational diplomacy in Europe. If the EU and the twenty four European countries fail to pay equal attention to China’s subnational diplomacy, then they will face more difficulties in maintaining collaboration with China. Think tanks in major western countries are deeply concerned about China’s foreign and Taiwan-related actions and security situation in the Taiwan Strait. These two factors have mutual influence on each other. Subsequent development also attracts attention.
The German government released the Strategy on China of the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany on July 13th, declaring that China is a partner, competitor and system rival. The Strategy states that Germany “is not seeking to engage in any decoupling with China.” However, it wants to “become less dependent in critical sectors.” As part of the EU’s One-China policy, Germany supports “issue-specific involvement on the part of democratic Taiwan in international organizations. The status quo of the Taiwan Strait may only be changed by peaceful means and mutual consent. Military escalation would also affect German and European interests.” However, inconsistent positions often can be found when the German government and private sector deal with China. In contrast, China, as a party-state authoritarian regime, has a more coherent policy for action toward the outside world. In particular, China conducts subnational diplomacy. Despite the fact that ties with local governments do not involve sovereignty and these governments cannot represent their country, subnational diplomacy still can be pursued even if there are problems in bilateral relations between countries.
It is noteworthy that the co-chairperson of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party Alice Weidel recently quoted Mao Zedong’s poem in her video. She also praised a new song titled “The Raksha Country and the Sea Market” by Chinese singer Dao Lang. Weidel said the song can be viewed as a depiction of the chaotic situation in Germany. Germany has become a hatchet man for Jews in the U.S., and the whole country is distorting facts and fails to distinguish right from wrong, said Weidel. Her remarks show that China’s subnational diplomacy between political parties or in the cultural area may impact the direction of political development of the target country. It is also clear that China tries to move beyond its traditional subnational diplomacy which only focuses on local governments. For China, this can serve as an alternative for tactical advance as it faces the reality of a strategic retreat from Europe.
Germany’s political circle has been anxious about the rising far-right force of the AfD. It has become the third largest party in Germany as its approval rating increased by 4 percentage points in the last three months. The AfD can even be on par with the largest ruling party the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The German government greatly worries about anti-immigration voices and climate change denial. Over the past two-plus months, the ruling government coalition was also embroiled in a serious infighting due to argument over a green bill. The continuously rising influence of the far-right party only adds more uncertainty to Germany’s political development.
China’s national diplomacy and tactical advance are often carried out in a public and lawful manner. However, they may be transformed to become a political blow to the target government. China is now facing the reality of a strategic retreat from Europe. European countries have their own relatively independent strategic calculation about the degree of their political and economic relevance with China. In particular, major western countries have become more vigilant about the national security implications of China’s foreign and Taiwan-related movements. Subsequent situations are worth noticing.
（Chiu-lung Huang, Adjunct Associate Professor of Department of Public Security of the Central Police University）
(Translated to English by Cindy Li)
