（Chao Chun-shan, Professor Emeritus, Tamkang University）
The Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army announced on the 23rd May that it would launch the “Joint Sword-2024A” military exercises around Taiwan. The purpose of the exercises was clearly stated by China as targeting “Taiwan independence” and “foreign forces.” To put it more bluntly, it is a response to President Lai Ching-te’s 520 inaugural speech.
Even though the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had no expectations for President Lai’s speech, it was not expected that he would take the opportunity to blatantly put a sensitive issue like cross-strait positioning on the table, thus depriving both sides of any room for maneuver.
Military drills are a means of military deterrence for the CCP against Taiwan. However, Taiwan military expert Chieh Chung believes that the CCP is using them as scenarios in the different phases of the war against Taiwan, which may include “sealing and controlling operations” on the off-shore islands, or even “surprise attacks on the near-shore islands.” These scenarios have not been seen in the last two military drills around Taiwan in August 2022 and April 2023, and is something one cannot afford to take lightly.
The so-called “foreign forces” undoubtedly refer to the United States. In his speech, President Lai made special mention of the US Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act and compared Taiwan to the US support for Israel and Ukraine. The US State Department “welcomed” President Lai’s reference to maintaining peace, stability and status quo in the Taiwan Strait, but avoided commentary on the “two-state” theory.
In view of the recent “shuttle diplomacy” between the US and China, and the “rock-solid” relationship between Taiwan and the US, the CCP naturally believes that the US is the backseat driver to President Lai’s speech. Therefore, it was more of an oblique accusation when the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that President Lai’s speech sent out dangerous signals which attempt to undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. It is worth noting that Wang Yi, Director of the CCP Foreign Affairs Commission-cum-Minister of Foreign Affairs, who was in Kazakhstan for the SCO Foreign Ministers Council meeting, criticized President Lai’s speech on two consecutive occasions, and the latter more severe than the former.
In response to China’s military drills against Taiwan, the US Department of Defense and Department of State have strongly urged Beijing to exercise self-control and are confident that existing US military deployments and operations are sufficient to maintain peace and stability in the region. In response to former President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the US in 1996 and former US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, the CCP initiated two Taiwan Strait crises, which created a tense China-US military confrontation at the time. Therefore, the US military response to the CCP military exercises is of particular concern to the outside world.
It seems that the CCP’s military exercise has not yet reached the level of a “crisis,” and in the face of the upcoming US election, both China and the US do not want to see any trouble in Taiwan. The Biden administration does not want to get involved in another Taiwan Strait war in addition to the Russo-Ukrainian war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, while the CCP does not want to heighten the current anti-China sentiment in the US to become a “cash cow” for either party to milk votes.
If the CCP recognizes that President Lai’s speech is a “product” of the DPP government’s attempted independence with the help of the US, then the CCP’s post-520 policy toward Taiwan would adopt the encircling strategy that seeks to isolate Taiwan, and to block any possible assistance the foreign forces, especially the US, may provide to Taiwan in various aspects, such as the military, diplomacy, and the economy.
In response to the possible US military involvement, the CCP will strengthen its Anti-Access/Area Denial (AD) capability by designating the waters off Taiwan as an exclusion zone, preventing any outside forces from influencing the CCP’s plans to encircle Taiwan.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
