（Hsien-Sen Lin, Professor, Department of East Asian Studies, National Taiwan Normal University）
In the sovereign dispute of Second Thomas Shaol with the Philippines, China adopted a “Military Operations other Than War (MOOTW)” to pose intimidation with its naval vessels. And it also exerted the “Grey Zone Conflicts” to launch powerful water cannons from its cost guard vessels or to engage in collision to prevent Philippines’ supplements to officers and soldiers stationed in the LT 57 Sierra Madre that deliberately stranded in the Second Thomas Shaol. The case is the best example that China has tried to unilaterally change the status quo of the Asia Pacific Region through forces.
In view of China’s provocative actions in the South China Sea, President Baiden invited Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan and President Marcos Jr. of the Philippines to hold a first-ever summit of US-Japan-Philippine three parties in the White House on April 12. And a three-week annual joint military exercise “Blikatan” was conducted in the peripheral areas of Palawan and Batanes of the Philippines. More than 16,000 troops were mobilized to engage in it, the largest in years, and the Australia and France also dispatched a frigate each to participate in the exercise. The armies, air forces, and marine corps of the US and the Philippines had conducted joint exercises of “Salaknib,” “Cope Thunder,” and “MAREX 24” earlier as warm-ups for the Blikatan. During the Salaknib exercise, the Typhon Weapons System, a new land-based missile launch system of the Army, capable of carrying Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM-6 missiles first appeared in a northern island of Luzon of the Philippines. The Typhon Weapons System possesses medium range attack capability, once deployed in the Luzon Island, it could lock down Luzon Strait (including Bashi Channel) and attack targets in the South China Sea and along the southeast coast of China.
In the 16th National Party Congress held in November 2002, Jiang Zemin, in his political report handing over power to Hu Jintao, listed “ocean development” as a national development goal for the first time and the State Council led by Wen Jiabao issued “Outline of the National Ocean Economy Development Plan” in May the next year. It unveiled the strategic goal of building a “maritime power,” stressing that the Navy is a guaranteed force for ocean development while ocean development provides resources to reinforce the strength of the Navy. After Xi Jinping came to power, he proposed the “three dreams in one” of “strong country dream,” “strong military dream,” and “Chinese dream: achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The first two dreams are the bases of realizing Chinese dream with the ultimate goal to advance to a sea power that could compete with the US globally.
Zhang Muwen, a scholar of a Chinese national security think tank, pointed out in his research that the fulfillment of sovereignty over Taiwan and the Nansha Islands (Spratly Islands) is crucial to realizing China’s maritime power because Taiwan is a forefront for China to enter the Pacific Ocean, so is it a front guard for China’s east economic golden zone while the Nansha Islands serve as front bases for China’s free passage in the Malacca Strait. In other words, “taking Taiwan” and “controlling Nansha” are two crucial points for China to break the containment of the first island chain and are also keys for its advancing to sea power. This strategic goal of maritime development contradicts to US intention to maintain its security dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to the confrontation or strategic competition between the US and China.
To cope with the challenges from China, the US has actively built a multilateral coalition system with North and South Anchors in the first island chain. The North Anchor consists of three groups of bilateral military coalitions made by the US, Japan and South Korea while the South Anchor also consists of three groups of bilateral coalitions made by the US, Japan and Australia. They serve as strategic supports for maintaining US security dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan locates in the middle of the North and South Anchors which is a crucial factor why Baiden repeated four times that once China invades Taiwan, the US will post troops to help defend Taiwan.
After taking office, Baiden has actively urged Japan and South Korea to improve bilateral relations. His efforts include a high-profile reception of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to the White House in April last year, the issuing of Washington Declaration to strengthen US- South Korea cooperation, and the historic US-Japan-South Kora Summit held in Camp David in last August, followed by the issuance of Camp David Principles, Spirit of Camp David and the trilateral Commitment to Consult. The three documents state that, in order to create a regular and timely communication mechanism, the trilateral annual meetings among leaders, diplomats, defense officials, and national security advisors will be held to enhance the trilateral cooperation and fulfill strategic partnership for a “free and open Indo-Pacific Ocean.”
Following the completion of North Anchor, Baiden welcomed Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan in a high-profile reception in the White House on April 10 and then held a historic US-Japan-Philippine summit in the next day as a backup for the South Anchor of US-Japan-Australia alliance. On the eve of this summit, a joint announcement by the defense ministers of the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines was made on the 6th, stating that the four parties would conduct a joint military exercise coordinating with the air and naval forces in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea the following day, gaining the South Anchor mechanism a home advantage in the South China Sea.
In fact, the Philippines first joined as an observer in the US-Japan-Australia joint exercise on island defense in Tokyo in early December last year. And, when the US and the Philippines jointly conducted a military exercise in the southeastern waters of Luzon Island in last December, Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada also participated in it with naval vessels. Moreover, the troops from Japan and South Korea also participated in the annual military exercise “KAMANDAG” jointly led by the marine corps of the US and the Philippines in Batanes and Palawan in November last year.
Japan has actively worked with the US to prevent China from attempting to alter the status quo in the South China Sea by forces so as to secure the stability in the Asia-Pacific region, the security of passageway in the South China Sea in particular, and to contain China’s arbitrariness in the East China Sea. In the US-Japan-the Philippine summit, Japan committed to assist the Philippines with the modernization of its defense capabilities, together with the US to deter China from bullying the Philippines in the South China Sea. Japan sold four surveillance and control radars, worth 11 billion yen, to the Philippine Air Force in August 2020 and it also offered a total of 6-million-yen costal surveillance radar system to the Philippine Navy free of charge to upgrade its Maritim Domain Awareness (MDA) capabilities based on the “Guidelines of Official Security Assistance (OSA)” issued on April 5 last year.
Kishida and Marcos reached a consensus on Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) for mutual entry of forces of both sides in a summit held in Manila on November 3 last year. It would help Japan increase its military presence in the South China Sea and, in the future, the US and Japan will continue to assist the Philippines to build up its own maritime law enforcement and naval forces. The Philippine Cost Guard plans to increase its size to 34,000 by the end of this year, four times of that 7 years ago, and the trainings of law enforcement vessels and personnel would be assisted by the US and Japan. The naval forces of the US, Japan and the Philippines also conducted joint exercise in the South China Sea, focusing on the anti-submarine operation, and the US has continued dispatching ships and vessels to freely navigate in the South China Sea to demonstrate its determination and military presence.
It's evident that China boldly attempts to alter the status quo of the Asia-Pacific Region with its increasing military forces; therefore, the US-Japan alliance has actively united countries that feel threatened by China, building up multi-layered defense mechanism through bilateral or multilateral cooperation to ensure its security dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Following the US-Japan summit, the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, a Chinese think tank, published an article to accuse the US and Japan of truly disturbing the peace and stability in the South China Sea through their assistance to the Philippines and that the joint efforts of the US, Japan and the Philippine are to promote a NATO-like development of Asia-Pacific Region. There are many uncertain facts regarding the formation of this Asia-Pacific version “mini-NATO,” but one thing is certain that the threat from China’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo of the Asia-Pacific region is exactly the driving force to make this “mini-NATO” possible.
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
