（Yang Tai-yuan, Contract Research Fellow, Institute of Chinese Communist Studies）
The 8th China-Vietnam Border Defense Friendship Exchange was held from April 11 to 12, 2024 in Hekou, Yunnan and Lao Cai, as well as relevant port areas. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, and his Vietnamese counterpart Phan Văn Giang led the delegations attending the event and held talks. Prior to the meeting, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding to set up a hotline between Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command and Vietnamese Navy. Dong said, “China is willing to inherit the profound friendship of “comrades and brothers” with Vietnam, firmly support each other’s core interests and major concerns, and elevate the strategic mutual trust between the two militaries to new heights. Both sides should make maritime cooperation a new highlight of military cooperation, enhance the ability to jointly maintain maritime security, and contribute to the construction of a strategically significant China-Vietnam community with a shared future.” Phan Văn Giang pointed out that Vietnam has always regarded the development of Vietnam-China relations as a diplomatic priority, and is willing to work with China to take the “six mores” as a guide to push bilateral defense relations to new heights.
On April 16, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun held a video teleconference with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. Mr. Dong reiterated that the Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests, which should never be jeopardized, and that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never give in to Taiwan independence separatist activities and external connivance; that the US side should recognize China’s firm position, respect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, and take practical actions to safeguard regional peace, as well as the stability of relations between China and the US
Recently, the dispute between the China and the Philippines over the sovereignty of the islands in the South China Sea has led to fierce confrontations between the Chinese and Philippine maritime police vessels, militia ships and warships, and the situation has become increasingly tense. On April 11, the US, Japan, and the Philippines held their first trilateral leaders’ summit, with a focus on the situation in the Indo-Pacific region and the South China Sea. During the meeting, US President Joe Biden reaffirmed that the US defense commitments to the Philippines and Japan are “ironclad.’ After the meeting, the US Army Pacific Command released a public statement that the US military has deployed mid-range capability missiles to Northern Luzon, Philippines. The annual US-Philippine “Balikatan” military drill is scheduled to begin on April 22 and will last for three weeks, with 16,717 troops (11,000 on the US side and some 5,000 for the Philippines) participating in the exercise. In the face of rising China, the US has been actively integrating the Indo-Pacific countries. Besides the US-Japan-Philippines Leaders’ Summit, there are also the summits for US-Japan, US-Japan-Korea, US-Australia-UK Security Partnership (AUKUS), the US-Japan-Australia-India Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the US-Britain-Canada-Australia-New Zealand Five Eyes Coalition (FVEY). In other words, the US is leading the Indo-Pacific region by promoting an Indo-Pacific security mechanism with the United States as the core, supplemented by bilateral and multi-lateral relations, and gradually builds an anti-China coalition mechanism.
Vietnam is one of the sovereign claimants in the South China Sea. In recent years, the US and Vietnam have been deepening their relationship, and the US hopes that Vietnam can cooperate with the Philippines to form an east-west pincer movement against the China in the South China Sea. On March 23 to 29, 2024, Vietnam’s Foreign Minister Bùi Thanh Sơn was invited to visit the US, and said: “The Vietnam-US relationship has enhanced from a “comprehensive partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2023. Meanwhile, Vietnam hopes to maintain good relations with both the US and China. On January 30, 2023, Philippine President Marcos Jr. paid a state visit to Vietnam and signed a series of bilateral cooperation agreements, including the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation between the Coast Guards of the two countries and the strengthening of cooperation between the two countries in the South China Sea. In other words, the US and the Philippines are actively trying to win Vietnam over as an anti-China ally.
In response to the military and diplomatic actions of the US and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, since taking office Dec. 29, 2023, has met with Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces Mao Sophan, Thai Defense Minister Sutin Klungsang, and Indonesian President-elect (incumbent Indonesian Defense Minister) Prabowo Subianto, and has agreed to deepen the bilateral military cooperation with the above countries. In addition to Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia, China has actively sought cooperation with friendly nations like Laos, Singapore, and Myanmar to address the South China Sea issue. This shows that China has already secured 6 ASEAN countries, and Vietnam is one that is actively pursuing. The 8th China-Vietnam Border Defense Friendship Exchange was originally scheduled for September 7-8, 2023. A few days before the event, Vietnam was informed that Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu would not be able to attend the event due to “health problems,” and hoped that the event would be postponed. In other words, Dong’s meeting with Vietnam’s Defense Minister at the border crossing was his first visit to Vietnam since taking over the post of Defense Minister, even though it was a postponed event. In fact, China and Vietnam have long been in dispute over territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea. Dong’s choice of Vietnam as the first country to visit shows that China is trying to draw Vietnam into its fold through the exchange program and win Vietnam’s support for the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea (COC). The establishment of the hotline between China and Vietnam aims to ensure timely dialog and communication between the frontline troops of both sides in case of encounters in the South China Sea, so as to minimize the risk of gunfire.
China was furious when Speaker of the US House of Representatives visited Taiwan on August 2, 2022. China not only conducted military drills near Taiwan but also halted exchanges with the US military at all levels. Moreover, in 2018, the US sanctioned Li Shangfu for violating the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), and when Li became the Chinese Defense Minister on March 12, 2023, it completely severed the ties between the senior levels of the Chinese and US militaries. After Dong Jun took office, China refused to resume the ministerial-level dialogue, probably thinking that it was not the right time to do so. However, on April 16, the CCP agreed to a video teleconference between Dong and Austin, which showed that the obstacles to China’s consideration of the sanctions probably no longer existed, and that the risk of a collision between Chinese and US militaries in the maritime and airspace areas of the Taiwan Straits, East China Sea, and South China Sea was greatly increased as a result of the recent incidents. In particular, with the US firm support for the Philippines’ sovereignty claim in the South China Sea, and the election of Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Lai Ching-te as the 15th President of the Republic of China, who is to be sworn in on May 20, China must draw a bottom line. Therefore, Dong’s strong reiteration in the meeting that “the core interests of the Chinese Communist Party must not be jeopardized” is a clear warning to the US not to explicitly or implicitly support Taiwan’s secessionist activities, and not to include the ROC into the “anti-China” partnership of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, and was the initial motive for China to resume the ministerial-level talks between the two countries. The US military, on the other hand, expects the resumption of the ministerial video talks to be normalized, so that they can immediately communicate and explain when things go wrong to avoid miscalculations. This highlights the discrepancy between the two sides in their perceptions of the resumption of the ministerial video talks.
In short, since taking office as the Chinese Defense Minister, Dong Jun has frequently met with foreign military delegations, attended the 8th China-Vietnam Border Defense Friendship Exchange, and signed various military cooperation agreements with various countries, with the aim of enlarging his “circle of friends” to cope with the US-led Indo-Pacific version of the NATO. The resumption of the defense ministerial video talks with the US is aimed at ensuring that differences are managed in the face of confrontation between China and the US, and that “fighting without breaking” is maintained. This will affect the “Code of Conduct for the South China Sea”, and the CPC is likely to blow sand and reclaim in Huangyan Island(Scarborough Shoal,) deal with the vessels at Ren’ai Reef, and step up in the monitoring and interfering with the US military’s freedom of navigation. On cross-strait issues, China will use the “gray area” to deter Taiwan, and use law enforcement to show its sovereignty. China has already labeled President-elect Lai Ching-Te and Vice President-elect Hsiao Bi-khim as “Taiwan Independence Workers” and does not place any hope on Lai’s inaugural speech. It is speculated that the Joint Warfare Command Center of the Eastern Theatre of China may conduct large-scale “Warfare Alert Patrols and Joint Exercises” before or after Lai’s inauguration, as well as carry out enforcement in the Taiwan Straits and the sea and airspace around Taiwan, so in view of the various deterrents that China may use, we should study all kinds of countermeasures in advance.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
