Commentary on Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s First Visits to China, Japan and Malaysia

Release Date : 2024-04-09

Professor Sun Kuo-hsiang, Department of International Affairs and Business, Nanhua University

From March 31 to April 4, 2024, Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto (popularly known as Prabowo) made his first visits to China, Japan, and Malaysia. According to the Indonesian Gerindra Party, Prabowo was honored to have been invited by the governments of China and Japan, while the visit to Malaysia seemed to be on his own initiative. The Party emphasized that Prabowo’s visits were a result of communication with President Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and that he would continue the policies of the Jokowi era. As Prabowo is still serving as defense minister, this visit not only strengthens the cooperation between the defense ministries, but also prepares him when he takes office in October.

Prabowo’s visits to China, Japan, and Malaysia can tell us something about his early foray into international politics. Despite the fact that the election for the world’s fourth most populous country and the largest economy in Southeast Asia has yet to be settled, Prabowo nevertheless tried to enhance his personal stature ahead of his inauguration on October 20, 2024 as he reaches out to countries that are willing to talk to him in his current capacity as defense minister. In fact, apart from this series of visits, Prabowo’s interactions with foreign ambassadors reached double digits in March alone, according to the Indonesian Ministry of Defense, which also included activities such as providing aid to Palestine.

During his meeting with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping, Prabowo said that he sees China as one of the key partners in ensuring regional peace and stability, and expressed his hope to progressively implement the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. In terms of defense cooperation, Prabowo is “committed to meeting the defense equipment needs of Indonesia, including enhancing cooperation between defense industries and productive dialogue, as well as cooperation between service branches.” During a meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, Prabowo said Indonesia is willing to further strengthen defense cooperation with the Chinese side and continue to promote the development of relations between the armed forces of the two countries. Mr. Dong said that Chinese military is willing to work with the Indonesian military to consolidate their strategic trust, promote joint exercises and training, and increase personnel exchanges to bring their practical cooperation to a new level.

During his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Prabowo said, “The two countries have built good cooperative relations so far, and have asked the Japanese government to work together to achieve stronger relationships in the future and increase collaboration in the defense sector.” Kishida hopes to deepen bilateral cooperation with Indonesia to promote free and open Indo-Pacific region.I want (Japan and Indonesia) to further advance cooperation as comprehensive and strategic partners sharing basic values and principles,” Kishida said. At the meeting with Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Prabowo said that he would like to send more Indonesian trainees to Japanese defense schools, which will help improve the quality of Indonesia’s defense manpower. Kihara said he hopes to work with Indonesia in maintaining and strengthening the free and open international order based on the rule of law, as both Japan and Indonesia are maritime nations. The two also discussed defense cooperation within bilateral and multilateral frameworks.

In a courtesy call on Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Prabowo said that in the future, defense cooperation improvement will continue to be a top priority, with Indonesia being committed to continue to improve good relations with friendly countries, especially with Malaysia and other ASEAN countries. Anwar expressed his hope that Malaysia-Indonesia friendly relations continue to be close and strengthened for the common good in the future. During his meeting with Malaysian Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin, Prabowo said the Indonesian Ministry of Defense is committed to working with their Malaysian counterpart to build a harmonious and mutually beneficial bilateral defense relationship. “Hopefully the relationship between Malaysia and Indonesia can continue to be strengthened, and this region remains safe, stable and prosperous,” Khaled said.

In terms of significance, Prabowo’s visit offers a glimpse of the possible roles of Japan and China in his future foreign policy. Technically, visiting Malaysia later than Japan, and visiting Japan later than China conveys a balanced image that mitigates the perception of being pro-China and may be catalytic in encouraging other countries’ early contacts with Prabowo, thus strengthening Prabowo’s position both in Indonesia and internationally.

Prabowo’s visit also indicated the future direction of Indonesia’s relations with China, Japan and Malaysia, as well as his broader foreign policy approach. Prabowo vowed to continue Jokowi’s economic development scheme, which has led Southeast Asia’s largest economy through a decade of rapid growth and modernization, utilizing Indonesia’s rich reserves of nickel, coal, oil and natural gas, and greatly expanding the country’s road and rail networks. Jokowi dislikes diplomatic summits, has never personally attended the United Nations General Assembly, and believes that foreign policy should be centered on promoting trade and investment. In contrast, Prabowo speaks English fluently and enjoys being in the global spotlight, but in his nationalist speeches he is sensitive to the contempt of foreign powers.

While Prabowo is unlikely to flip Indonesia’s longstanding commitment to an independent, non-allied foreign policy, he will bring a passionate and unpredictable style to the table. Prabowo proved this at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last June when he surprised many regional analysts and the Indonesian media by proposing a peace plan for the Russo-Ukrainian war that could have been developed in Moscow. Needless to say, Prabowo is a clever tactician, having fought for the presidency for at least two decades, and he won by capitalizing both on the desire of Indonesians to see a continuation of Jokowi’s policies, and that of Widodo to retain his influence after he left office. However, once Prabowo is in power, he will want to set his own policy goals.

Prabowo’s combative nature means he does not mind lecturing the Western powers, which will continue to attract the attention of Indonesians. In the past, he has said that Indonesia does not need the democratic experience of other countries and, he has been outraged by European criticism of Jakarta’s dependence on palm oil exports considering their colonial legacy. During his presidential campaign, Prabowo criticized the European Union’s policies targeting at deforestation in Indonesia, saying, “It was the Europeans who came to our islands and forced us to plant tea, coffee, and rubber. ... And now you are saying that we are destroying our forests? You destroyed our forests before.” Such attitudes contrast sharply with Jokowi’s reputation as a “polite populist.”

Moreover, in a multipolar world where shifting alliances are determined by a narrow set of goals, Prabowo may fantasize that he is charting an independent course, following Suharto’s example. Although Indonesia and China claim that there is no dispute over their sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea, there are indeed disputed waters, and Prabowo is clearly favoring Beijing because China has fewer strings attached to its investments than European investors. On the other hand, Prabowo may rely on risky populist measures to shore up domestic support.

In short, as the world’s fourth most populous country, Indonesia’s social stability is crucial to solidify its transition to democracy. To succeed, Prabowo will need to be a 21st century leader who can maintain Jokowi’s foreign policy, but also continue to meet geopolitical challenges and steer the direction of Indonesia’s diplomacy with ASEAN.

Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi