（Dmytro Burtsev, postdoctoral research fellow at College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University ;junior research fellow at A.Yu. Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine）
Relations between the PRC, the Russian Federation, and North Korea have a long and interesting history and development dynamics. It went through several ups and downs during different periods. The Korean War, when the Soviet and Chinese volunteers participated in the war on the side of North Korea, can be taken as a starting point for close relations in this triangle. During the Sino-Soviet split in relations, North Korea maintained neutrality and tried to keep good relations with both.
It should be underlined that relations went through different phases but were intensified after the Russian full-scale aggression on Ukraine in 2022. China and Russia were key participants in the Six-Party Talks, which discussed ways of solving North Korean nuclear and missile programs.
The Soviet Union was one of North Korea's key trading partners, and China is now North Korea's largest trade partner. In the 1990s, relations between Russia and North Korea seemed to decay, and relations between North Korea and China were in deep crisis from 2017 to 2018. Both Russia and China have a land border with North Korea. However, the length of the land border between Russia and North Korea is just 39 kilometers, and in comparison, the border between China and North Korea is 1420 kilometers.
Both Russia and China made adverse claims against placing American missile defense systems in neighboring states. For Russia, this involved placing components of Patriot missile defense systems in Poland and Romania, and for China, it involved placing THAAD missile interceptors in South Korea. Both Russian, Chinese and, of course, North Korean leaders saw the placing of American defense systems as a possible threat to national security.
Another essential commonality between these three countries is the particular models of their national political regimes. Many international actors do not consider these countries to be democratic. That is mainly due to the high concentration of national power in the hands of one person in each of these countries.
From all the facts mentioned above, we can see that these countries share a continuous history of interrelationship and shared features, and in fact, very often very similar views and attitudes to the particular issues of international relations, especially those attached to international security.
Speaking about this triangle, it is essential to mention that traditionally, relations between North Korea, China, and the Russian Federation are necessary for all parties and have a high level of development.
In 2000, Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang, which can be considered a “new beginning” in relations between Moscow and Pyongyang. Russian and North Korean leaders agreed to intensify political and economic cooperation during the visit. In 2001, a North Korean leader visited Russia. As a result of the visit, both parties signed the Moscow Declaration, similar to the one signed by the parties a year before in Pyongyang. In August 2011, Dmitry Medvedev and Kim Jong met in Ulan-Ude. The last Russian-North Korean summit (Vladimir Putin – Kim Jong-un) was held in Vladivostok on April 25, 2019.
The foreign ministries cooperate closely. On April 9-11, 2018, North Korean Foreign Minister Lee Yong Ho officially visited Moscow. On May 31, 2018, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Pyongyang formally. The foreign ministers of the two countries met on September 26, 2018, in New York on the sidelines of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly.
The fact that shows the closeness of the ties between Russia and North Korea is the recognition of the Russian actions of the occupation of the Crimean Peninsula as legal in 2014 by North Korea. For another example, geographical maps issued in 2017 in North Korea directly showed Crimea as a part of the Russian Federation. Such a message appeared on the official Facebook page of the Russian Embassy in DPRK. Moreover, DPRK is one of the 11 countries that voted in March 2014 against the resolution in support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. In addition to the DPRK, these were Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba, Zimbabwe, Nicaragua, Syria, and Sudan – countries that were allied to the Russian Federation and had good relations with it. North Korea was one of the five countries that voted against the UN resolution against the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The following quotation can also clearly describe the Korean position:
“The root cause of the Ukraine crisis totally lies in the hegemonic policy of the U.S. and the West, which enforce themselves in high-handedness and abuse of power against other countries,” the North's official KCNA news agency said, citing an unnamed foreign ministry spokesperson. This means the complete support of the Russian actions in Ukraine.
North Korea was several times blamed for supplying military materials to Russia in 2022. Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, visited North Korea on July 25-27, 2023. He was accompanied by Deputy Head of the Russian Defense Ministry Alexei Krivoruchko, who oversees military-technical cooperation with other countries. This fact directly shows the actual depth of the military cooperation between the two countries and the Russian direct interest in developing military-productive relations with North Korea.
Kim Jong-un's six-day visit to Russia in 2023 was a significant event in the relationship between the two countries. It showed the high trust and mutual interest level between the two countries' elite circles. The meeting between Putin and Kim took place at Vostochny Cosmodrome. The event's meaning was more than symbolic: it was conducted to demonstrate all Russian missile technologies, and in diplomatic language, it might mean that Russians were ready to provide at least some missile technologies for Korea. It should threaten Russian enemies as long as North Korea might be more assertive in the face of possible conflict with the US and South Korea. As for exchange, North Korea might become a strong supporter of Russia by providing it with missiles and large-caliber projectiles. Notably, in ballistic missiles assembled in North Korea and fired by the Russian military, the majority of electronic components used were produced in Western countries. This fact underlines the particularly low efficiency of the sanctions against the North Korean missile program. Moreover, it can be estimated by some experts that these components were obtained in cooperation with China, or at least not without Chinese knowledge of this fact. Nevertheless, no facts can prove this hypothesis of some Western analytics.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Sino-Russian trade had an intense impact on all records. China is more than interested in cheap Russian natural resources, which China is more than eager to consume under the sanctions set by Western countries over the Russian Federation in 2022-2023. It is also possible to assume that China might provide dual-use goods materials for Russia. However, as of now, no evidence can approve or deny this theory. Even though there has been sustainable growth in active military exchanges between China and Russia. Russia is also considered one of the biggest exporters of different military products to China, including missile defense systems and jetfighters.
It is also notable that the Russian Federation has started using oil to pay for the weapons provided by Korea. According to research conducted by RUSI—Royal United Services Institute, North Korean tankers started transporting Russian oil from the Far East directly to North Korea's ports. That directly breaks the sanctions against North Korea for supplying oil. Such a situation creates a new cooperation regime between rogue countries within a broader international community. The Russian Federation also possibly provides North Korea with raw materials and resources for additional military production of military munition, which is being exported from North Korea back to Russia.
Another possible hotspot in the Asian region is Taiwan. On the one hand, conflict on the Korean Peninsula, which might happen simultaneously with the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, will definitely disperse the ability of the USA and allies to react to Taiwan and South Korea's crises simultaneously. On the other hand, it might legitimize the alliance of the PRC, North Korea, and Russia to counter Western countries and completely rebuild the currently existing world order that has already started shaking during the prolonged war in Ukraine. In case of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Russia can be described as an expected critical supplier of food, energy resources, and raw materials for China as long as Western countries block possible sea and land corridors for exporting supplies. This is also expected because of the specific position of China in the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is called “silent pro-Russian neutrality” by some experts. In exchange, the PRC expects mutual support and loyalty from Russia during possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
