Rumors about the H-20 bomber can be traced backed the earliest to September 1, 2016, when Ma Xiaotian, the then Commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force stated that “China is developing a new generation of long-range bomber” in the Chang Chun Air Force Open Day. It was the first time that China officially confirmed the existence of such development project. Wang Wei, the current member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the deputy commander of the PLA Air Force, revealed that “the long-awaited H-20 bomber will be unveiled to the public soon and its mass production and commissioning will closely follow” on March 11, 2024. He said, “we won’t compare with the US, and we only defend our security,” indicating that the H-20 bomber could be unveiled to the public soon and officially announced.
Chinese people have longed for the debut of the H-20 bomber which has taken 8 years to develop and is still all sizzle and no steak, with no sign of its public appearance. The development of the H-20 might be first based on the structures of US Air Force B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit; however, with the first flight and low-rate production of US B-21 Raider, China might want to avoid the awkward situation of an outdated H-20 in its maiden flight by possibly referencing B-21 for partial remodeling or redesign. Therefore, the H-20 bomber might make its public appearance in the end of 2024 or early 2025.
Shen Jinke, PLA Air Force spokesman, said that “the Air Force of China has historically achieved the status of strategic air force” in the 13th China Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition on August 31, 2012. Strategic air force originally referred to “strategic bomber force” of the air force, and later integrated “air-launched intercontinental missile force” into it. With the advancement of air force equipment, the strategic air force has further developed from a strategic bomber force to a global air strike force composed of multi aircraft including offensive and support types. In other words, a strategic air force should also include early warning aircraft, electronic warfare aircraft, radar jamming aircraft, communication aircraft, air-refueling aircraft, fighters, aside from bombers. Therefore, the formation of a strategic air force is a formation of “systematic operation,” specifically possessing the capabilities of strategic projection, deep attack and long-range nuclear attack.
How’s the performance of the H-20 bomber? It has remained a mystery. There are speculations that it possesses the capability of long-range flight and large payload, with operation radius possibly reaching 5000 km. And, based on propaganda film clipping, it might have stealth design. With all the assumptions, it could conclude that the bomber has a flight range of 13000 to 15000 km, and it would pose threats to US military bases in Guam and Hawaii if it could penetrate the first island chain and enter the airspace of the Western Pacific. In addition, if the H-20 bombers together with naval vessels and missile brigades of the Rocket Force exercise “area denial/ anti access” in formation, it will force US aircraft carrier strike group (or battle group) to slow its entry into the West Pacific and create favorable condition for China’s attacking Taiwan.
PLA currently has around 200 H-6 bombers, some of which have exceeded 50 years in service. They would be in high risks when facing joint intelligent surveillance and joint defense network by various countries; therefore, the development of H-20 bomber has become a must for China’s heading toward a major strength. Once in mass production, the H-20 bomber will gradually replace H-6 bomber. Some of the newer H-6 bombers might be kept for upgrading and service extension. It is estimated that the mass production of H-20 bomber could reach 200, keeping the size of the bomber force in 300 aircraft.
Once the H-20 bomber is unveiled to the public, PLA’s new “three in one” nuclear strike force would be gradually fulfilled. They are the Dong Feng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, the JL-3 intercontinental submarine-launched ballistic missile armed by Type 096 nuclear-powered submarine, and the air-launched intercontinental ballistic missile carried by H-20 bomber to demonstrate PLA’s new nuclear deterrence power. H-20 bomber is a symbol of strength for China, and it also acts as a nuclear deterrence and nuclear strike power to other nuclear countries.
In assessment of PLA’s air force sequences, there are JH-7A, J-16, SU-30, aside from H-6, all capable of carrying 10 tons of payload and possessing the capability of attacking military facilities and critical infrastructures along the east coast of Taiwan with the support of air refueling tankers. In particular, with the J-20 stealth fighter acting as vanguard to destroy Taiwan’s surveillance and air defense system followed by the precise attack of J-16, it could further paralyze Taiwan’s operational sustainment. Therefore, it is needed to continue assessing the impact following the public appearance of H-20 bomber and studying the possible threats posed by other aircraft types and its countermeasures.
（Tai-yuan Yang, Contract Research Fellow of the Institute of Chinese Communist Studies）
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
