The North-South Korea issue involves the relations among the US, Japan, China, and Russia. In other words, the North-South Korea issue is a multi-international relation in Northeast Asia. When the global order is increasingly complicated by the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, and the attacks of Yemen Houthi rebels, the changing relation between Russia and North Korea has also become a focus of international attention. Taiwan has just finished its presidential election, and its political situation is also a focus of the core issue concerning the two sides of the Taiwan Strait for both the US and China. All of these events are more or less related to the game between the US and China, and the cooperation among the US, Japan, and the South Korea in East Asia. Given the contradictions between the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the North Korea nuclear issue and the tensions in the Taiwan Strait have all become the focus of China-US frictions. In addition, China’s intention to expand its influence in the South China Sea, its conflict of interest with countries in the region, and the dispute in the Taiwan Strait are all military and economic security issues concerning circulation of shipments and energy security among regional countries.
In the recent Russia-Ukraine war, due to Russia’s lack of conventional weapons, it has caused an enhancement of relation between Russia and North Korea. From the pragmatic perspective of international politics, it is a favorable option for both Russia and Noth Korea, and North Korea has flexibly used its strength in exchange of the technology and support it wants from Russia. But from the perspective of China, the strategic cooperation between Russia and North Korea is against China’s intentions to use North Korea dealing with and containing the US strategically. The changing relation between North Korea and Russia, and North Korea’s sending friendly signals to the US and Japan might diminish China’s influence in the Korean Peninsula. With the current progress, North Korea might benefit from Russia in missile-related technology and energy security and can use it to gain China’s concerns and supports. China might worry that the increasing cooperation between North Korea and Russia could reduce its influence in North Korea. China has sent high level officials to visit North Korea to strengthen bilateral relations before Russian President Putin’s visit to North Korea. It might prompt China to change its relation with South Korea to avoid the existence of risks between two sides.
The Russia-Ukraine war has opened up a new diplomatic way for North Korea and opened its door to embrace science and technology and foreign affairs. From China’s perspective, this new order in Northeast Asia might influence the international order in the Taiwan Strait and the waters around the South China Sea. In the context of power struggle with the US, China might possibly consider the necessity to adjust the cross-strait relations. The US will have a presidential election this year; many countries are concerned that the tensions across the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula might lead to the election of an aggressive US president who would lead the US into a new “isolationism.” China is also concerned that countries from Northeast Asia to Southeast are hostile to it while the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and its allies are getting more consolidated together.
Then the South Korea will hold congress election in April. The subjects like conservatism, progressiveness, economy, and security might affect the result of the election. And more congressmen who are concerned about security, economy, livelihood, and social issues might be elected, similar to the result of Taiwan’s presidential election. With this election result in South Korea, it might evolve an unfavorable political environment for China.
The North Korea might gain security benefits from its increasing cooperation with Russia, and it could use this to get more supports from China at the same time. Meanwhile, North Korea is sending friendly signals to Japan to seek opportunities to establish relation with the US. Its ultimate goal is to lift US lockdown and solve domestic economic problems while still possessing its nuclear weapons. The diplomatic goal of the North Korea, as mentioned by the former Chairman Kim Il-sung, is ultimately to establish international relations with the US. Only when the goal of Kim Jong Un government is achieved, can the Kim family (the Mount Paektu bloodline) maintain legitimacy in ruling North Korea. In other words, the core target of North Korea’s politics, economy, and diplomacy is moving toward stabilizing its domestic politics, and to improve its external environment through the tensions with South Korea. This strategy is to provoke the military of South Korea without irritating the US, by criticizing South Kore being unfriendly to maintain its domestic stability and ultimately utilizing the contradictions in international relations to seek survival space. Efforts to solve the domestic political and economical problems as well as to seek opportunity for international cooperation can win Kim Jong Un recognition and support from the people. In its strategy to South Korea, North Korea has deliberately ignored South Korea and tried to reach out to the US through Japan because North Korea believes that South Korea has no intention of improving relations with it, and there is few hope to change relations with the US through China, as North Korea believes that China intends to use it to contain the US, not to mediate the North Korea-US relations. In this sense, the cooperation between North Korea and Russia has at least opened a way to reach out to the US through Japan; and in the long term, North Korea hopes, more or less, to create opportunity to communicate with the US through Russia.
In the current global situation, it is believed that North Korea is unlikely to start a war against South Korea. North Korea is not strong enough to invade South Korea economically, militarily and scientifically. It could only pose threat to South Korea with it conventional and nuclear weapons, but if North Korea intends to start an overall war, it will urgently need the approval and support of Russia and China.
North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is not welcomed by South Korea, Japan and even China in the Northeast Asia. However, it does not pose great threat to Russia, in which its capital locates in Europe. North Korea might seek strategic cooperation with Russia and China to undermine US influence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Southeast Asia countries. But this approach might prompt the US to change the specific tactics of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. In short, the cooperation among North Korea, Russia and China might change the strategies of South Korea, the US, and Japan camp towards North Korea, and the US might adjust parts of the Indo-Pacific Strategy to increase its security interests in this region. If Trump is elected as US president, there would be substantial adjustment to US strategy towards North Korea, Russia, and China, sticking to “American first” in its foreign policy. Ever since the end of World War II, the US has kept a close cooperation with Japan in its East Asia strategy, watching closely the situation in the Korean Peninsula, the cross-strait situation, and the international environment in Southeast Asia to protect its global interests. Under these circumstances, China, which is on the defensive, and other countries which are somewhat also in passive positions in the region, may produce a new international relation and world order, that might accelerate the tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. Some scholars suggest that the US might improve the US-North Korea relation to consolidate its power and that the US might further adopt a cold and warm policy (carrots and sticks) to South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. In view of this situation, I believe that the issues concerning the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and a nuclear North Korea in Northeast Aisa are all closely related, mainly centralizing on the US election and the distribution of power and interests of the US within the global politics and the region.
(By Kim Jin Ho, Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Dankook University; Visiting Scholar, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica)
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
