Recent frequent interactions between North Korea and South Korea have plunged the Korean Peninsula into a war crisis again. On the other hand, there are more and more signs that former U.S. President Donald Trump may return to serve as US president next year. Media and diplomatic circles from various countries are speculating on changes in U.S. diplomacy after Trump returns and drafting countermeasures.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol's claim that he has repaired Moon's diplomatic deficit seems to be outweighed by the more serious challenges he has attracted. Indeed, Korea and Japan, which had deteriorated under President Moon Jae-In, have improved, the weakened U.S.-Japan-South Korea security cooperation has been revived, and the U.S. Biden administration has provided nuclear-powered submarines to South Korea. Nevertheless, Yoon has created three enemies in the North, and is caught in the extremely dangerous situation of having enemies on three sides. Yoon's policy of extreme pressure on North Korea has invited Kim Jong-un to intensify military cooperation with Russia. In response to North Korea’s recent artillery fire and ballistic missile testing, President Yoon said that South Korea would punish North Korea for provocations. He emphasized “The current administration in the Republic of Korea is different from any past one. If there are any provocations by North Korea, the punishment will be several times stronger.” Yoon’s provision of weapons to Ukraine through the U.S. has accelerated the decision of President Putin of Russia to technically assist North Korea in launching a successful spy satellite in exchange for Kim Jong-un's provision of weapons to attack Ukraine. Moreover, the Kremlin has announced that Putin will visit Pyongyang in the near future to develop all-round relations with North Korea, immediately after Putin met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. Recently North Korea announced that it test-fired the nuclear torpedo 'Haeil,' claiming it is an underwater strategic weapon capable of carrying out a surprise attack on South Korean military ports by transporting a nuclear warhead and detonating it underwater. North Korea asserted that the latest launch was in response to the largest-ever maritime exercise conducted by South Korea, the United States, and Japan in the international waters of Jeju, involving the mobilization of nine ships, including the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson.
Furthermore, recently South Korea has replaced the United States as North Korea's primary enemy. This may mean that Kim Jong-un is preparing North Korea for better relations with the United States or even ready for the establishment of diplomatic relations with the US, since the South is no longer useful tool for that purpose. With former South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s good offices and mediation, Kim Jong-un was able to have North Korea leader’s first-ever summit with the US president. Up to recently, Trump has repeatedly boasted that he and Kim Jong-un have a good personal relationship. Moreover, one of the biggest differences between the behavior of U.S. foreign policy in the Trump era and that of the current Biden administration is that traditional allies are not viewed worthwhile. In other words, the U.S. will not make any economic or trade concessions for the sake of its security or political interests. What's more, the U.S. has converging interests with North Korea against China. Trump could boast to his country that his establishment of diplomatic relations with North Korea has expanded U.S. anti-China influence in the Indo-Pacific in a way that previous U.S. leaders could not, but he has. Kim Jong-un, on the other hand, has not only achieved diplomatic successes that neither his grandfather nor his father could, but he has also reduced the threat to his regime from Beijing. Don't forget that when Kim Jong-un shot and killed his uncle Jang Sung-taek in December 2013, Jang was convicted of treason and collaborating with the enemy implying China.
Siding with the United States is not without price. The cost in fact is huge. Small and medium powers have to pay enormous economic cost not only for China’s economic punishment but also for the backlash of the US policy toward China. In October 2022, the Biden administration’s Bureau of Industry and Security issued its most unprecedented export controls against China. The intent of the US government was clear — to impede China’s ability to produce, or even purchase, the highest-end chips. The logic of the measure was straightforward: advanced chips and the supercomputers and AI systems they power enable the production of new weapons and surveillance apparatuses. It requires Korea, Taiwan, Japan and others to restrict exports of advanced semiconductors to China. President Yoon Seok-yeol's foreign policy of turning to the US has offended China, and under the pressure of the US, South Korea is unable to export its competitive products, such as semiconductors, which has led to the decline of South Korea's exports to China year by year in recent years, while the scale of imports from China has increased dramatically. Though later last year, South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix received the US green light to continue sending equipment to their factories in China. According to the latest data, in 2023, South Korea's trade balance with China turns into a deficit for the first time in 31 years. As of November 2023, South Korea's exports to China amounted to US$114 billion, while imports from China amounted to US$132 billion, with a deficit of US$18 billion. What even worse is that Apple sold 234.6 million smartphones (20.1% share) in 2023, surpassing Samsung Electronics (226.6 million, 19.4%), according to market research firm IDC. The same goes for the semiconductor market, which has become a national battleground. Samsung lost the top spot in the world semiconductor market to Intel in 2023. The future is not rosy as well. Given that Donlad Trump is very likely to be reelected as the US President, he has vowed to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act on his potential first day back in office, a threat that would deal a major blow to South Korean semiconductor and battery companies that made large investments in the US. What Trump symbolizes — US isolationism, protectionism and dismissal of American allies — will bring a fundamental change to the international political and economic landscape.
On the surface, the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula is characterized by a high chance of fierce war, but what really deserves our attention is to grasp the true meaning of the U.S.-China strategic interaction and its possible political and economic impact on the future across the Taiwan Straits and the Korean Peninsula. This is because both the cross-strait relations and the crisis on the Korean Peninsula have been under the control of the U.S. and China bilateral mechanism. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Bangkok during their visit in Thailand in late January this year. The Wang-Sullivan meeting is their first such contact since US President Joe Biden met Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November 2023, they vowed to maintain strategic communication and responsibly manage the relationship. The two countries continue their momentum of engagement and communication despite multiple issues on which they are at odds. The US is concerned over Red Sea tensions, the Ukraine crisis, Artificial Intelligence and supply chains, while the Taiwan question and the South China Sea issue remain China's top priorities. During the 12-hour talks in Bangkok, Wang and Sullivan discussed the DPRK issue. According to the Korea JoongAng Daily Chinese edition, Sullivan asked China to exert its influence over the DPRK, given that the US is concerned about North Korea’s supply of war materiel to Russia. However, Wang did not specify China’s position on this issue, but rather asked the US to honor its commitment not to support Taiwan independence.
What is more, it would not be good for Taiwan and South Korea if Trump were to return to power as president of the United States. Trump will immediately withdraw from the Russia-Ukrainian war as he vowed, focusing on how to quickly gain economic and trade benefits for the U.S. Its strong protectionist tendencies will further hurt Taiwan and South Korea's economic and trade, while the loss of strategic value of the Taiwan and South Korea will have greater political risks, such as forcing Taiwan to engage in a political dialogue with the mainland, South Korea will be faced with the U.S. tacitly recognized the fact that the North Korea has nuclear weapons (the previous U.S. tacit recognition of India's possession of nuclear weapons as a partner in its resistance to China), the U.S. to establish diplomatic relations with the North Korea. What is not seen in Seoul is that both China and South Korea are concerned about North Korea's military cooperation with Russia, the arms race on the Korean Peninsula, and North Korea's nuclear possession, which is the main reason for China's lukewarm attitude towards North Korea so far. Unlike Russia, which is stepping up its cooperation with North Korea in the military and other areas, China intends to keep the lines of communication open with North Korea and manage them first. Against this background, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong (孫衛東) paid a visit to Pyongyang in January this year and met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui for discussing ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation for common core interests. Obviously China has thus been trying to manage its relations with North Korea lately amid strengthening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. North Korea sent Park Myong-ho, a vice minister, to Beijing last December. No ministerial meetings between North Korea and China have taken place yet this year. It is unknown if Sun met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his three-day visit to Pyongyang or not. South Korea has repeatedly claimed that North Korea will carry out another nuclear test explosion, but so far Kim Jong-un has not done so mainly because of China's opposition.
In fact, just recently a regiment of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Northern Theater Naval Force (also known as the PLA Navy's North Sea Fleet) has deployed a land-based Eagle Strike 62 (YJ-62) anti-ship cruise missile during an exercise in the coastal city of Haiyang in Shandong Province. The missiles may be the first to be deployed in the Northern Sector Defense Area, with implications for the strategic significance of the Yellow Sea, where China may be preparing for eventual military conflict with the Korean Peninsula, Russia, or Japan. This move can be regarded as Beijing’s response to rising tension on the Korean peninsula and the US request to jointly manage the crisis between the two Koreas.
（Adjunct Distinguished Professor of Diplomacy and Director of Center for WTO Studies, College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University To-hai Liou）
