A survey recently released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank based in Washington, DC, shows that around 67% of US experts and 57% of Taiwan experts believe that a crisis similar to the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis could recur in 2024. As a matter of fact, prior to this presidential election in Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait has been ranked as a grade one risky area in 4 consecutive years by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), also a US think tank. The wining of election by Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would naturally raise its risk.
When China conducted military exercises one after another in the Taiwan Strait in response to Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the US in June 1995, the US attitude, as recalled by President Clinton in his memoirs, was “we’ve never explicitly expressed whether we would defend Taiwan when it was attacked.” Clinton stated his ordering of US aircraft carrier battle group (CVBG) to cruise the Taiwan Strait because China’s missile tests were going “too far.” According to Susan L. Shirk, the then US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, the two carrier strike groups (CSG) only passed near Taiwan, not entering the Taiwan Strait, to express US determination to defend Taiwan.
Lee Teng-hui was confident facing Taiwan Strait Crisis created by China because he kept a secret communication with the other side of the Strait while Washington was completely out of the loop and concerned about Taiwan’s over reaction to escalate the situation. Therefore, the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-1996 eventually turned to an “edge of war game’ among the three sides, Taiwan, US and China.
Nowadays, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is totally different. The two sides of the Strait won’t talk to each other so the detour to Washington has become the shortest distance between Taipei and Beijing, and the US is happy to play the role of both “player and referee.” It is conceivable that Lai Ching-te, after taking office, would have no other options but follow the lead of the US.
Unlike Clinton, President Baiden has expressed several times his intention to defend Taiwan and tried to jointly control the risk in the Taiwan Strait with Beijing through “preventive diplomacy” and “preventive defense.” Thus, there was no risk of another Taiwan Strait Crisis during the presidential election, and the three sides have shown self-restraint.
Before the US presidential election, the situation of the Taiwan Strait may maintain in a manner of exterior relaxation and interior tension. Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, and Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, met in Bangkok Thailand on January 26-27. The talk was kept secret, but Taiwan issue surely would be a focus for strategic communication of both sides. Both China and the US have their separate reasons to keep Taiwan from being a troublemaker in the US election.
The post US-election situation is hard to predict. Trump is “business-minded,” and Taiwan issue could become a bargaining chip for him to negotiate with China once he is elected. Trump has been reluctant to commit himself on issue of defending Taiwan and he used to complain about “Taiwan stealing US chip business.”
Taiwan was once acclaimed by the editorial of New York Times as “too big to be ignored,” because of the economic miracle it made. And Taiwan has become a role model in the global Chinese communities because of its promotion of democracy based on economy. Taiwan people demand to be the masters of their own so the “Taiwan consciousness” should not be interpreted as “Taiwan independence consciousness,” and the Taiwan politicians should not send wrong message of “Taiwan independence” through elections.
The 1996 direct presidential election was a milestone in Taiwan’s democratic progress. China tried to intimidate Taiwan through political propaganda and military threat but failed to stop Taiwan from heading toward democracy. But China-US relation was heating up after the Taiwan Strait Crisis, and Clinton visited China after being reelected. He brought out the “New Three Noes Policy” unfavorable to Taiwan, namely not supporting “Taiwan independence,” not supporting “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan” policy, and not supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations as a country.
The presidential election has ended in Taiwan, but the game is not over yet. The battlefield has turned to the fight for the presidency of the legislature. The election is only a temporary matter, but the long-lasting peace and stability of the country is a real matter. Taiwan’s biggest challenge today is changes from external environment, the relations among Taiwan, US and China in particular. If those in power do not think about strategies to deal with them, then any election would be simply a “storm in a teapot.”
（Chao Chun-Shan, Honorary Profess, Tamkang University）
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
