According to the report of Want Daily on December 19, 2023, “Fujian (18), the third aircraft carrier of China, has begun a test of its electromagnetic catapult system. The footage showed that ‘a little red car’ used in the test creating a huge splash ahead of the deck. It reveals that the catapult system of Fujian has been fitted out and enters into the phase of testing,” indicating that People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has advanced to the catapult-assisted aircraft carrier from the previous skip-jump carriers. But the launch of the “little red car” into the sea doesn’t mean that Fujian has electromagnetic catapult capabilities. Actually, it needs long and high-density testing to make sure the stability and success rate of its consecutive launches. Fujian is currently conducting “mooring trial tests” and then later the “sea trials” before being integrated to the PLAN. After joining in the navy sequence, the carrier will further conduct more adjustment (debugging) operation to various power devices and weapon systems, training for the crew in sing-ship basic skills, utilizations of carrier-based aircrafts and coordination between carrier and aircrafts, carrier formation and multi-ship coordination training, and comprehensive training in all subjects. In addition, it will also test the ability of various carrier-based aircrafts to meet the needs of installation requirement timely. Therefore, there is a long way to go from the first successful launch of the “little red car” to the inclusion of the carrier into navy sequence and the formation of combat power. If everything goes smoothly, Fujian might probably possess the capability to lead a carrier battle group (CVBG) or carrier strike group (CSG) and undertake combat readiness duty in 2028.
There are different views regarding whether China will attack Taiwan with its aircraft carriers. Admiral (Ret.) Huang Shu-kuang, former Chief of General Staff, when invited to give a speech in a university, stressed that the carriers Liaoning, Shandong and Fujian could be deployed in formation in the north, east and south of Taiwan, at 1000 km (540 nautical miles) away. Considering the operational radius of 1500 km (810 nautical miles) for carrier-based J-15 fighter, it would pose the greatest threat to east Taiwan. While Admiral (Ret.) Lee Hsi-ming, also former Chief of General Staff, expressed in an interview that PLAN is less likely to attack Taiwan directly with its aircraft carriers as PLA’s bombers, missiles, and submarines are quite sufficient to cover the region of Taiwan and attack all important targets in Taiwan even without aircraft carriers.
Geographical researchers have advanced three main theories in the past century, trying to assert the way to control the world from geographical perspective. Sir Halford Mackinder, an advocator of land power, proposed that “Eurasia and Africa are the World Island (or Core) in the geography of the earth and the center of Eurasia is the Heartland of the World Island. Therefore, who rules central and eastern Europe commands the Heartland. Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island. Who rules the World Island commands the world.” Alfred Thayer Mahan, a historian of sea power, believed that “ocean is the center of the world. Who controls the strategic locations of the sea controls the economic and security lifelines of nations worldwide, conducive to the control over the whole world.” Nicholas John Spykman, a scholar of Rimland Theory, contended that “the control of the borders between land and sea leads to the dominance of the whole world. Who controls the rimland rules Eurasia. Who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.” Therefore, Mackinder’s World Island Theory laid the theoretical foundation for the fightings among land powers during World War I, while Mahan’s Sea Power Theory remained the basis for the US posing as a global superpower after World War II until the Cold War period. And after Spykman put forward his Rimland Theory, it was highly valued by the US government. And it has become a theoretical cornerstone for the US posting numerous overseas military bases and island chains to consolidate its supremacy and conduct containment to China, Russia and Middle East countries.
Even though the PLAN has gradually developed the three aircraft carriers since 2012, it fully realizes that there is a significant gap comparing to US carriers in the fields of the hard strength like proficiency, endurance and weapon system, as well as soft strength like carrier operation experience and crew training. Facing the 11 CVBG of US, the PLAN has adopted an asymmetric warfare policy of “you fight yours and I fight mine.” Currently, the PLAN’s carrier, under the protection umbrella of land-based hypersonic anti-ship missiles and land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles, has cruised through Miyako Strait along the East China Sea and Bashi Channel along the South China Sea, heading toward the West Pacific Region to conduct “anti-access/ area denial” mission.
Xi Jinping said to the US President Trump on November 9, 2017, that “the Pacific Ocean is big enough for both China and the US.” China has given priority to the development of its Navy in recent years. Naval vessels commissioned into service exceed 100,00 tons every year, and the vessel activities have extended to the first line of Guam and the west of the second island chain, keeping PLAN’s existence in the west Pacific Ocean and controlling its dominance in the west of the second island chain which is regarded by China as a fundamental requirement of safeguarding the national security.
Examining the 2019 China’s National Defense white paper, China has claimed a defensive national defense policy; however, the strategic requirement of the Army is “multi-dimensional offense and defense, trans-theater mobile operations,” the Navy “near seas defense and far seas protection,” the Air Force “integrating air space capabilities and coordinating offensive and defensive operations,” and the Rocket Force “possessing both nuclear and conventional capabilities and deterring wars in all battlespaces.” In fact, the strategies of all forces imply power projections and deep penetration attacks, targeting at protecting China’s “frontier interests.” Facing US Indo-Pacific strategy, China has increased its speed to keep up with, actively building up a world-class Navy to weaken US sea power and ultimately diminishing US capability of global control through the rimland. Economically, China has used the Belt and Road Initiative to integrate Europe and Asia continents, thus reuniting the whole Eurasia continent to gradually undermine US strength and influence.
In summary, China’s aircraft carrier construction symbolizes a great power and serves a significant means in protecting its “frontier interests.” Judging from the progress of its carrier construction, China might own 5 carriers (3 conventionally powered, 2 nuclear-powered) in 2035 and probably own 8 carriers (3 conventionally powered, 5 nuclear-powered) in 2050. The goals of China’s naval building up is to fully control the sea power in the west of the second island chain (within 5000 km from its coastline) by 2035, and to possess the capability to cruise the global oceans by 2050. China has built overseas bases in strategic positions to achieve the goal of protecting “frontier interests” while utilizing its influence with the Belt and Road Initiative along with the core of Rimland Theory to provide supports for operation and logistics. In other words, China’s aircraft carrier would be used for “great power competition” and safeguarding “frontier interests.”
In addition, whether the PLAN’s aircraft carrier fleets will be projected to attack Taiwan, the two former Chiefs of General Staff have different views. Admiral Huang Shu-kuang pointed out the possible locations and directions the PLAN might deploy when conducting “anti-access/ arear denial,” while Admiral Lee Hsi-ming stated that the PLA’s Navy and Air Force are capable of attacking the east of Taiwan. The PLAN owns type-055 and type-052D missile destroyers, and its submarines are equipped with YJ-18 anti-ship missiles (600 km), YJ-18 land-attack cruise missiles (600 km), YJ-18 submarine-launched anti-ship missiles (600 km), YJ-21 anti-ship missiles (2000 km), while its Rocket Force owns DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship missiles with projection ranges of 2000 to 4000 km, and the Air Force’s H-6 bombers are armed with CJ-20 cruise missiles (2000 km) and air-launched anti-ship missiles That is to say, the PLA has the capabilities to conduct sea and air operations in the east of Taiwan. When attacking Taiwan, it will not directly project the aircraft carrier to attack the eastern military bases and related installations, but use the carrier to counter the US CVBG, acting as anti-access of US and Japan’s military to the waters around Taiwan.
(Tai-yuan Yang, Contract Research Fellow of the Institute of Chinese Communist Studies)
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
